Wind AlliesTier 2
at 貓腳印-桃園店 Regional
decks
12
(16.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
47
18-28-1
overall winrate
39.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.0%
avg ELO -2.4 per match
expected value
42.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1247
· median 1205
· range 1149–1536
(12 pilots with an ELO rating)
1069
Q1 1179
Q3 1362
1536
17% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 19.2% | 15 | 4-10-1 | 30.0% | 34.2% | 37.6% | -5.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 8.2% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 38.0% | -8.9 |
| Water Allies | 8.2% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 28.1% | -14.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.8% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 32.4% | -13.2 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.8% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 44.6% | -2.7 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 6.8% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 75.6% | +16.4 |
| Fire Erupting | 4.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 39.9% | -7.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.6% | +1.5 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 4.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Fire Diana | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.5 |
| Fire Lorraine | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Fire Neos | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos Tonoris | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.8 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Hybrid | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -13.9 |
Decklists · 12 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 5 mirror matches (2 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 5 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Trained Hawk, Esteemed Knight, Windrider Vanguard. Losers more often ran: Swift Recruit, Song of Nurturing, Phalanx Captain.
Trained Hawk
Winning decks ran 2.4
copies on average,
losing decks 1.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Esteemed Knight
Winning decks ran 2.4
copies on average,
losing decks 2.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Windrider Vanguard
Winning decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
losing decks 3.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Shimmercloak Assassin
Winning decks ran 2.4
copies on average,
losing decks 2.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Viridian Protective Trinket
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa
Winning decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
losing decks 1.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Swift Recruit
Losing decks ran 3.2
copies on average,
winning decks 1.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Song of Nurturing
Losing decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Phalanx Captain
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Inspiring Call
Losing decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
winning decks 3.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Tactful Sergeant
Losing decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
winning decks 1.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Poisoned Coating Oil
Losing decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Show all 62 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 42 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trained Hawk | +0.60 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Swift Recruit | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 2 | |
| Esteemed Knight | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 3 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 3 | |
| Wind Cutter | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Windrider Vanguard | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Song of Nurturing | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Fairy Whispers | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Phalanx Captain | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Cry for Help | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Ears | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Aesan Protector | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Shimmercloak Assassin | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Attune with the Winds | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Eye of Argus | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Inspiring Call | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Favorable Winds | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Winbless Gatekeeper | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mark of Fervor | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Zephyr | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| Tactful Sergeant | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Distilled Atrophy | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wildgrowth Elixir | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Coating Oil | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Weaponsmith | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Displace | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Genesis Aegis | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Choking Fumes | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Second Wind | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Armored Valkyrie | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Recruitment Officer | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rose, Eternal Paragon | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Banner Knight | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Hurricane Sweep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Seeking Shot | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Innervate Agility | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Trained Sharpshooter | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tonoris, Might of Humanity | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Rallied Advance | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Imperial Recruit | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Orb of Regret | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |